655
ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over
portions of the central and southern Plains this evening.

...Midwest into the central and southern Plains...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad and elongated upper trough
over much of the central CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave
trough over the northern Plains will advance northeastward while a
secondary vort max continues eastward over the central Rockies.
Ascent from these features and a southwesterly mid-level jet will
overspread a northeast to southwest oriented surface cold front from
MN to eastern CO. Modest surface moisture and prior diurnal heating
along the front have allowed weak surface-based destabilization,
supporting scattered storm development early this evening.

As convection continues developing, an isolated severe storm risk is
expected given 35-45 kt of effective shear and a nocturnally
strengthening LLJ along the front. A few initial supercell
structures are likely given the strong flow aloft. With time,
anafrontal forcing and increasing storm coverage should transition
ongoing storms toward a more linear mode. This will favor some
initial severe hail and isolated severe gusts as the primary
concerns before storms weaken overnight.

Farther north across the Midwest, an occasional strong/severe storm
will remain possible this evening. Despite stronger synoptic ascent
closer to the shortwave trough, lingering cloud cover and limited
moisture have stymied available buoyancy. This should limit storm
intensity, though isolated strong gusts remain possible tonight as
linear convection should gradually mature along the front.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2025

$$