856
ACUS01 KWNS 250509
SWODY1
SPC AC 250507

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Western OK...
An upper ridge axis will extend from TX to MN on Friday, with an
upper trough rotating eastward out of NM into the southern Plains.
Considerable coverage of thunderstorms has developed this evening
over NM, and is expected to spread northeastward overnight into west
TX and western OK.  The associated high-clouds will slow/lessen
daytime heating.  A few of the 00z CAM solutions indicate some
concern for a few strong storms across parts of western OK on Friday
afternoon.  If strong heating can occur, these storms could pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts.  Due to the approaching cloud cover,
will hold off on severe probabilities at this time and re-evaluate
in later outlooks.

...Central/Northeast NM...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present on Friday
over much of the southwest US, with widespread weak CAPE leading to
scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across much of NM.
Forecast soundings over central/northeast NM show some risk of hail
in the stronger cells.  However, parameters are rather weak for
severe-caliber hail so will forego an upgrade at this time.

..Hart/Weinman.. 09/25/2026

$$