726
ACUS01 KWNS 141237
SWODY1
SPC AC 141235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this
afternoon into tonight.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the
northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will
extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the
surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this
region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western
portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward
tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the
MT/ND/SD border.

Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level
heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop
across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this
afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest
westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could
pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward
through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to
develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the
front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures
aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding
overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better
chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could
pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE
and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer.

...Eastern States...
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH
Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the
higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of
this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized
clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass,
moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of
the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse
rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts,
with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms
spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should
develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading
south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak
low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While
low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest,
some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could
promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to
severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability.

...Mid-South...
A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South
and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an
isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this
afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the
overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal.

...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt
of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop
over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving
southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very
deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts
with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear
will likely remain weak.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025

$$