843
ACUS01 KWNS 251628
SWODY1
SPC AC 251626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley.  An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL.  Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain.  Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening.  A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025

$$