156
ACUS01 KWNS 011246
SWODY1
SPC AC 011245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the
base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley
through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then
northeastward throughout the period, moving across the
southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending
the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e.
90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave,
with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly
flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from
the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS).

Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent
attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the
previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return
confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few
elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the
afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity
supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more
subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX.
Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger
shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening
of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This
phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low
progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into
the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight
into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an
increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle.

...Coastal AL and FL Panhandle...
Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region
of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period
(08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing
low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition
and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms.
Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts,
amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a
result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm
sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL
Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado
and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This
threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is
discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early
Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level
moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be
elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the
overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may
see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any
stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore.

..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025

$$