361
ACUS01 KWNS 150524
SWODY1
SPC AC 150523

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late this afternoon and
evening.

...Ohio Valley...

Strong large-scale midlevel height falls will spread across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley later today in advance of a short-wave
trough that will dig into the Great Lakes by 16/00z. Associated cold
front will surge to a position from southern ON-northern OH-central
IN by late afternoon and this feature is expected to serve as the
focus for isolated thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is not
particularly aggressive in boundary-layer destabilization with
surface temperatures forecast to warm into the lower 60s along the
OH river into southern OH, with upper 50s expected downstream across
western PA. These temperatures would yield a few hundred J/kg
uncapped SBCAPE by late afternoon within a strongly sheared
environment. HREF guidance suggests weak frontal convection should
evolve between 16/00-02z across eastern OH/western PA. This activity
will spread downstream, but likely weaken fairly quickly in the
absence of meaningful buoyancy over central PA. Strong wind gusts
are the primary concern.

...Southern CA...

Strong 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the
offshore trough toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 18z, with
high-level diffluent flow forecast across southern CA/lower CO River
Valley. Latest guidance suggests the associated cold front will
surge inland after 18z-19z, and cooling post frontal profiles will
lead to a bit more instability that should favor lightning within
deeper convective updrafts. Pre frontal convection is expected to be
weakly buoyant and updrafts should reflect this poor instability air
mass. While post frontal destabilization may lead to more robust
updrafts, weaker shear does not appear particularly favorable for
severe wind, but some small hail could be noted. Will not introduce
severe probabilities for these reasons.

..Darrow/Moore.. 11/15/2025

$$