Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 171253
SWODY1
SPC AC 171251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move
northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains.  A mid/upper-level shortwave
trough near the base of the larger-scale trough is forecast to
amplify as it moves across the Desert Southwest and into the
southern High Plains.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit storm coverage/intensity through the early evening.  An
increase in primarily elevated convection is expected from mid/late
evening onward in association with a strengthening low-level jet.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late tonight will support increasing potential for some
updraft organization.  The primary hazards with the stronger storms
will be an isolated risk for large hail and localized severe gusts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/17/2025

$$