


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
252 ACUS01 KWNS 171253 SWODY1 SPC AC 171251 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough near the base of the larger-scale trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the Desert Southwest and into the southern High Plains. ...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley... Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity through the early evening. An increase in primarily elevated convection is expected from mid/late evening onward in association with a strengthening low-level jet. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel lapse rates late tonight will support increasing potential for some updraft organization. The primary hazards with the stronger storms will be an isolated risk for large hail and localized severe gusts. ..Smith/Bentley.. 10/17/2025 $$