852
ACUS01 KWNS 020559
SWODY1
SPC AC 020557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains
today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of
the Southeast and northern High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along
the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will
overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the
surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus
for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains
within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases
throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the
front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal
heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy
overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep
low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization
with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large
hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled
front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado
or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large
temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from
the boundary where surface moisture is less robust.

With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential
for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is
expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should
allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to
continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected
to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster
with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern
CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight.

...Northern High Plains...
Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of
the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be
displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially
capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely
near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through
the afternoon and early evening hours.

...Southeast...
A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south
toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm
and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast.
Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and
from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered
to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much
of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will
favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for
clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and
damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger
low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could
allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of
southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL.

..Lyons.. 08/02/2025

$$