163
ACUS01 KWNS 061239
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the
vicinity of a cold front that extends from the TX Panhandle
northeastward through eastern Upper MI. This cold front is forecast
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs move within the upper troughing that extends from
the Canadian Prairies southwestward off the central/southern CA
coast. Moderate southwesterlies will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the upper troughing, although much of this stronger
flow will remain displaced north of the cold front.

Given the presence of moderate pre-frontal low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints generally in the low 60s), showers and occasional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it continues
eastward/southeastward today. However, overall buoyancy will be
tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. Two areas along the frontal
zone, northern IL into Lower MI and eastern NM/TX Panhandle, do
appear to have a higher potential for a few stronger storms.

...Northern IL into Lower MI...
Surface dewpoints in the low 60s, temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) are expected
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Lift along
the front, along with additional ascent provided by a low-amplitude
embedded shortwave trough, will interact with this buoyancy to
support thunderstorm development along the cold front as it
progresses eastward across the region. Moderate shear will also be
in place, with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector a bit
more orthogonal to the front than areas farther south. As such,
there is greater potential for thunderstorms to remain within the
warm sector longer. As such, a few stronger storms with damaging
gust potential are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of
effective shear oriented along the boundary. These storms may
continue after dark into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust
potential. Even so, minimal buoyancy should limit the overall severe
threat.

...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating and mixing will contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the cold front by the late afternoon. This
destabilization will likely lead to thunderstorm development along
the front, but the overall buoyancy will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, high
storm bases and 30 kt of deep-layer shear could result in a few
stronger gusts. Overall potential and coverage is currently expected
to be too low to merit introducing any severe probabilities.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/06/2025

$$