515
ACUS01 KWNS 030534
SWODY1
SPC AC 030531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. today.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough and attendant surface cold front are forecast to
move east across the upper Mississippi Valley today. Increasing
midlevel moisture with the large-scale ascent ahead of the trough,
coupled with conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, should
result in enough elevated buoyancy for thunderstorms across portions
of the region. Given the elevated nature of this convection and
otherwise limited instability, severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated.

Farther southeast, a slow-moving front extending from the Carolinas
southwestward toward the northwest Gulf will remain a focus for
thunderstorm development through the period. Although ample moisture
will support thunderstorms along and south of the boundary,
generally weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the
moist thermodynamic environment should limit prospects for organized
severe convection.

..Marsh/Halbert.. 10/03/2026

$$