189
ACUS01 KWNS 161956
SWODY1
SPC AC 161954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to trim probabilities behind the
low/cold front in the Midwest and northern Plains. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track with no large changes needed.

Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to intensify across
portions of MN/IA this afternoon, with potential for damaging winds,
large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. See MCD#1311 for additional
information.

Across the northern Plains, a couple of supercells have developed in
southeastern SD producing a few instances of severe hail. Additional
development is expected across portions of NE/KS this afternoon,
with potential for large to very large hail and damaging winds. See
previous discussion of more information.

..Thornton.. 06/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/

...MN/IA...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
eastern Dakotas.  As this trough moves eastward this afternoon, a
surface low will deepen over central MN with a trailing cold front
sweeping across the state.  Morning convection is getting out of the
way, which should allow several hours of strong
heating/destabilization.  Afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg are
expected, with little inhibition.  This should lead to rapid
thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon near the surface low, with
at least widely scattered development southward along the cold front
into northern IA.  Low-level winds are somewhat veered but strong.
This coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft should promote a few
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado or
two is also possible.

...NE/KS...
The aforementioned cold front will sag southward into northern NE by
early evening.  A strong southerly low-level jet south of the front,
along with steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE, will promote
the development of scattered intense storms along the front.
Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds are
expected, along with perhaps a tornado.  Congealing outflows from
high-based convection are expected to move into the region during
the mid-evening from the west, resulting in upscale convective
growth and an increasing risk of damaging winds.

...MS/AL...
Strong heating is occurring today across much of MS and western AL,
where dewpoints are in the mid 70s.  Clusters of thunderstorms are
forming over LA, which are expected to propagate northeastward
across the region through the day.  Steep low-level lapse rates,
large CAPE, and relatively strong ambient low-level wind fields will
pose some of risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest
cells today.

$$