469
ACUS01 KWNS 061946
SWODY1
SPC AC 061944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon.  The
primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two.

...20z Update...
A severe convective line has evolved across the New England region
earlier than anticipated by most guidance - even recent CAM
solutions - and has a history of producing severe gusts and wind
damage. Across New England ahead of the line, skies are gradually
clearing with temperatures warming into the low 80s. This is
supporting a gradual increase in MLCAPE that should maintain the
squall line as it approaches the coast through early evening. Any
appreciable tornado potential appears highest across this region
based on recent radar trends that depict meridionally-oriented
segments of the line that may support brief circulations. Severe
risk probabilities have been adjusted to reflect these recent
convective trends both ahead of and behind the line. Further to the
southwest, more transient, but at times intense, convection
continues to develop along the cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into
the Southeast. Isolated instances of severe hail/wind will remain
possible through the evening hours as thunderstorms develop within a
buoyant, but modestly sheared environment.

..Moore.. 09/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/

...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England...
A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from
MD into eastern PA/NY and New England.  To the east of the boundary,
at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates
and destabilize the air mass.  Thunderstorms have already begun to
form along this zone, with intensification to scattered
strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon.  Mid-level lapse rates are
not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and
deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of
damaging wind gusts and some hail.  A tornado or two will also be
possible.  Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of
concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z.
Refer to MD #2042 for further details.

$$