489
ACUS01 KWNS 031258
SWODY1
SPC AC 031256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.

...East/Southeast TX into Central/Southern LA...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined southern-stream
shortwave trough progressing southeastward along the southern CA/NV
border vicinity. This shortwave is forecast to continue
southeastward through the Lower CO River Valley region before then
pivoting more eastward across the Southwest. An extended fetch of
mid-level southwesterly flow preceding this wave is expected to
strengthen as it moves across the Southwest. At the same time,
southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will strengthen,
with an attendant increase in warm-air advection from the western
Gulf across the TX Coast into LA. This warm-air advection will help
support modest buoyancy atop a shallow stable layer, promoting
elevated thunderstorms from east/southeast TX into central and
southern LA.

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to quickly increase in the 03Z to
04Z time frame across southeast TX before spreading eastward and
northeastward throughout the remainder of the period. Moderate to
strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend across this entire
region, supporting strong deep-layer shear. This strong shear could
support some occasionally stronger/more organized updrafts capable
of small hail. Even so, weak buoyancy should limit updraft strength
and duration, keeping any hail threat minimal. Mid 60s dewpoints may
advect onto the immediate middle and upper TX coast as a weak
surface low moves northeastward through the region. However, even
with these higher dewpoints, surface-based convective inhibition
will likely prevail given deep warm layer anticipated. This should
keep the tornado potential very low, despite substantial low-level
storm-relative helicity.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/03/2025

$$