988
ACUS01 KWNS 301959
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
COAST OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the
middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.

...20z Update...

...Middle Coast of TX...
The upper trough and associated vorticity maxima noted in the
previous outlook continues to shift northeast. Tornado probabilities
have been trimmed in the wake of this disturbance. A brief tornado
remains possible with any updraft that can take advantage of the
enhanced low-level shear in this region. See MCD #2420 for
additional details.

...Arizona...
Visible satellite trends have shown some filtered insolation in the
wake of the initial band of precipitation this afternoon, resulting
in modest destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped
across portions of northwest Arizona and southern Nevada. Additional
redevelopment should continue farther south, into central/southern
Arizona over the next few hours. Isolated severe hail/winds will be
possible with this activity amid the modest deep-layer shear
environment. Probabilities have been trimmed slightly in southwest
Arizona based on observational trends.

..Karstens.. 10/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026/

...Middle Coast of TX...
An upper trough and associated vorticity maximum evident in midday
water-vapor imagery over the Rio Grande Valley will continue
east-northeast and reach the Ark-La-Tex and northwest Gulf Coast by
late evening.  A zone of warm advection immediately ahead of the
disturbance will advance northeast up the coast during the
afternoon.  The inland penetration of higher theta-e into the
coastal counties may result in sufficient buoyancy for a couple of
stronger updrafts.  Some enlargement of the low-level portion of the
hodograph within a moist environment may yield a risk for a brief
tornado near the coast this afternoon.

...Arizona...
A shortwave trough moving into southern CA will continue northeast
towards the Four Corners during the period.  Copious mid to
high-level cloud cover will likely limit heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer across the lower desert.  Model guidance
continues to indicate the possibility for a few stronger
thunderstorms developing later today.  An isolated risk for
marginally severe hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the
stronger thunderstorms.

$$