613
ACUS01 KWNS 141626
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern
and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern
Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma.

...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight...
Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from
southeast KS into central and eastern OK.  The KS cluster had the
better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened
while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake
of the OK convection.  The environment downstream into AR could
support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have
intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind
damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters.

The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern
KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to
develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning`s
storms.  Related increases in low-level warm advection will support
new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being
impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could
evolve in this warm advection zone overnight.  An environment with
steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to
low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail,
severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes.

...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening...
Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with
the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT.  Forcing for
ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow
component along and east of a lee trough.  At least widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher
terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the
baroclinic zone across central MT.  A few supercells will be
possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with
southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts
based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an
environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear
that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells.
There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist
overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon...
Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern
MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks.  As surface
temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will
increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon.  Modest enhancement to
vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle
perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some
clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the
southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly
weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN.  Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be
sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage.

..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025

$$