325
ACUS01 KWNS 220459
SWODY1
SPC AC 220457

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will
gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling
aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will
eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and
NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the
instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.

To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC
during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out
to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,
residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result
in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting
isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer
shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse
rates do not appear to favor severe hail.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025

$$