310
ACUS01 KWNS 011253
SWODY1
SPC AC 011252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this
afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and
western Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma...
A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will
progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and
eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a
strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at
500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted,
a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas
into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the
advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon,
yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate
buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest
Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm
development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift
as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow
aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield
some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters.
Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible
through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from
southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025

$$