598
ACUS01 KWNS 030102
SWODY1
SPC AC 030100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central
Plains this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect
western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the
southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in
place over the southern and central Plains. Within this flow, a 60
to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico
extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to
severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet in an area
with strong large-scale ascent from far southern Kansas into
southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly
in the lower to mid 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Oklahoma City has 0-6 km
shear of 65 to 70 knots with some directional shear in the
low-levels, and backing in the mid-levels. The strong deep-layer
shear will continue to be favorable for severe storms this evening,
as a line segment gradually organizes and moves eastward across the
moist sector.

So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and
discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. This will
likely continue to be a problem this evening concerning the
potential for a greater severe and tornado threat. Within the
ongoing line, tornado potential will be maximized with embedded
rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible
as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat will accompany
the line, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible, mainly with
the segments of the line that exhibit bowing structure...see MCD
2435 and 2437. The severe threat should impact western Missouri and
northwest Arkansas during the overnight period.

Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the cells
have been more discrete early this evening. A couple of supercells
are ongoing near the Red River. These storms are located along the
far southern edge of the low-level jet. As the low-level jet
continues to ramp up this evening, low-level shear will be favorable
for continued severe thunderstorm development. Severe wind gusts,
hail and potentially a few tornadoes will be possible...see MCD
2436.

...West-central and North-central Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough in the
southern High Plains. The southeastern edge of the system is located
across west-central Teas, where a band of strong thunderstorms is
currently developing. These storms are located near a surface trough
along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Near the surface trough, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the VAD
wind profilers near San Angelo and Abilene have 40 to 50 knots of
west-southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which should support
supercell development this evening. The primary threats are expected
to be severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2026

$$