023
ACUS01 KWNS 200600
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this
evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong
to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the
Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts
of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a
surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great
Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary
draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly
northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another
shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and
evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of
the period.

...Southern Plains...
Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains
later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate
MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to
locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM
into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and
locally gusty winds.

Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally
modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a
result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across
the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in
the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending
on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some
potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could
evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level
hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from
parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any
surface-based supercells can be sustained.

Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly
organized convective line across NM into west TX during the
afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave
trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains
quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to
support a severe threat with this scenario.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025

$$