586
ACUS01 KWNS 230536
SWODY1
SPC AC 230534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of
west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed
max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist
across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse
rates aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface
temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints
will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into
central TX by 12Z Monday.

As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will
move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air
mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be
substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e
advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will
be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As
such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into
western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where
instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely
after about 18Z.

Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,
surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort
Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to
stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form
along the weak boundary.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025

$$