280
ACUS01 KWNS 020527
SWODY1
SPC AC 020525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast and the southern Florida Peninsula today, and eastern
Carolinas tonight.

...Discussion...

Strong, cold upper low is currently located over southeast MO,
digging southeast toward the TN Valley. Center of circulation is
forecast to advance into middle TN by 18z where midlevel
temperatures will cool considerably. Latest guidance suggests 500mb
temperatures will be colder than -20C across the northern half of
AL/GA with readings as low as -28C over northern TN/southern KY.

Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the upper low
from northeast AL into eastern TN, and this should steepen the
lowest 1-4km lapse rates such that surface-based parcels reach their
convective temperatures by 18-19z. Forecast soundings exhibit a few
hundred J/kg SBCAPE across this region and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to evolve. While freezing levels will be quite low,
forecast buoyancy appears inadequate for more than small hail with
this diurnally driven activity.

During the latter half of the period, upper low will progress across
the southern Appalachians. This evolution will encourage a surface
wave to develop off the Carolina Coast. As the exit region of the
midlevel jet approaches the Southeast Coast, isolated convection is
expected to develop. Most of this activity should be elevated and
instability will be too weak to warrant a risk of severe.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 11/02/2025

$$