


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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012 ACUS01 KWNS 151605 SWODY1 SPC AC 151603 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains. Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur. ...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains... An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from the lee low into central/eastern NM. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO. Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur. Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening, eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the evening/nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Moore.. 10/15/2025 $$