208
ACUS01 KWNS 170038
SWODY1
SPC AC 170037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe
threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley
later tonight. Hail is the primary risk.

...01z Update...

Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially
north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread
across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however,
water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances
approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so,
LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the
next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal
increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective
development this evening.

00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if
lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at
this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture
should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust
thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates,
hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts.
Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow
upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of
one or more MCSs.

..Darrow.. 06/17/2024

$$