Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
860 FNUS22 KWNS 110650 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing encroaches into the Pacific Northwest and northern CA coast on D2/Wednesday as upper ridging begins to shift eastward. The trough and increasing moisture from the Pacific will aid in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm development across higher terrain of northwestern MT, ID Panhandle and northeastern WA Wednesday afternoon. Breezy and dry conditions north of more robust monsoon moisture across the Southwest will promote an elevated fire weather threat for parts of northeastern CA and adjacent OR/NV as well as the Upper Snake River Plain. A surface low across the central Plains will bolster southerly winds across the Southern High Plains, promoting elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and southwestern KS. ...Southern Plains... Hot and dry conditions will persist south of a frontal boundary over northern KS on D2/Wednesday. A parent surface low over western KS will enhance southerly winds across much of the Southern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. The southerly winds of around 15 mph, RH dropping to as low as 10% amid a drought stressed fuelscape will promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern KS. Elevated highlights were adjusted westward based on latest model guidance and expected fuel conditions. ...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle and Northwestern Montana... Thunderstorms are expected across neighboring higher terrain to the north of the Columbia Basin Wednesday afternoon as increasing mid/upper level moisture accompanies a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will likely evolve as PWATs reach into the 0.80-1.00 inch range amid increasingly instability. However, fuels remain quite receptive with ERCs still reaching into the 90-95th percentiles so concerns for new ignitions remain. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were warranted given ongoing fire activity in the Pacific Northwest. ...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... Flow aloft will back to the southwest over the Great Basin as the upper trough pushes into the West Coast and broader ridge slides eastward. A very dry residual boundary layer and developing westerly winds of up to 15 mph during peak afternoon heating will support elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels across northeastern CA, northwestern NV and southern OR. Farther east, similar west/southwest winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 15% will support an enhanced fire weather threat for the Upper Snake River Plain in ID. Introduced Elevated fire weather highlights for both of these areas as deeper monsoon moisture remains to the south at least for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$