741
FNUS22 KWNS 011904
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

Tomorrow`s fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only
minor adjustments needed to the isolated dry thunderstorm area based
on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Gusty/erratic
thunderstorm outflow winds are possible across the dry thunderstorm
area given steep low-level lapse rates. Hot, dry, and unstable
conditions are also forecast to develop across portions of
California into Oregon tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may promote
increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods
on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large
plume-dominated fires.

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
tomorrow`s fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 09/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/

...Synopsis...
The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential
for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into
portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery
depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast
to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift
and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient
destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday
morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon
and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease
with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal
moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may
range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central
OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast
storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry
lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to
95th percentiles.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$