833
FNUS22 KWNS 081951
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

Elevated highlights have been expanded into portions of the
California Central Valley and adjacent interior Coast Ranges.
Despite weak flow aloft, a tightening surface pressure gradient will
induce stronger onshore flow on Day 2/Sunday. Above normal
temperatures of 100+ degrees are expected across the Valley and
foothills with the lowest RH values ranging from 5-15%. Sustained
winds of up to 15 mph (gusts of 20-25 mph) are possible, with
stronger gusts of up to 35 mph in terrain-favored areas. A prolonged
hot and dry airmass has increased fuel receptivity, with forecast
ERCs approaching the 90-95th percentile and an uptick in new fire
starts.

The northward progression of observed monsoonal moisture is
advancing slightly faster than most guidance is portraying, leading
to a minor expansion of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights across
southeastern Idaho and western Wyoming. Beneath ample westerly flow
aloft, just enough mid-level moisture may advect into the higher
terrain, with deep vertical mixing and resultant instability
increasing the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. An
exceptionally dry and receptive fuelscape will enhance concerns for
lightning-induced ignitions, and gusty/erratic winds could
exacerbate any established fires within the landscape and any new
starts.

Farther south, Elevated highlights were slightly adjusted across the
southern Plains based on updated guidance. Daytime high temperatures
will approach 100+ degrees while sustained southerly winds increase
to 15-20 mph and RH values decline to less than 15%. However, a
mixed fuelscape of live fuels and areas of grass curing (as seen by
a 30-day NDVI comparison) and fuels rebounding from spotty recent
rainfall yield a complicated environment. Nevertheless, fire
concerns remain across the area.

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026/

...Synopsis...
A large mid-level ridge will once again be centered across the
Southwest on Sunday. Along the northern periphery of this ridge, a
series of short-wave troughs/vorticity maxima will move from the
Pacific Northwest, across the Northern Rockies, and into the
Northern Plains. Monsoonal moisture will continue to work its way
around the Southwest ridge, with some potential for dry
thunderstorms along its periphery.


... Northern California and Oregon east into far western South
Dakota and Nebraska ...

Strong diurnal heating of the dry airmass in place will result in a
deeply mixed boundary layer. This will allow the modest mid-level
flow to mix down to the surface yielding localized areas of 15-20
mph winds, with higher gusts. At the same time, minimum afternoon
relative humidity will fall into the upper single digits to teens.
The result will be a broad area of elevated to locally critical fire
conditions, particularly across terrain favored areas of Idaho and
Wyoming.


... Sierras east into Colorado ...

A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of this region on Sunday. The environment in which
these storms develop can be characterized as deeply mixed, with a
very dry sub-cloud layer. Thus, any thunderstorm that does develop
within this zone will have the potential for significant evaporation
within precipitation cores, limiting meaningful precipitation
amounts, despite precipitable water values around three-quarters of
an inch. Strong, gusty, and erratic thunderstorm outflows will be
possible with these storms.


... Portions of the Southern High Plains ...

The belt of enhanced southwesterly 700-millibar flow across
southeast Colorado on Saturday will expand south and east across the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Sunday. As strong diurnal
heating develops during the afternoon, this wind will mix down to
the surface yielding winds around 15 mph, with locally higher gusts.
At the same time, minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages
will fall to between 10-15. Seasonally adjusted ERC percentiles show
much of the area at greater than 95%, with pockets in excess of 98%.
This combination of fuel dryness, winds, and low humidity will
result in at least elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.

Additionally, a couple of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop
across the Plains of southeast Colorado during the late afternoon
and evening. Forecast soundings show a very deeply mixed boundary
layer (nearly to 500 millibars) with several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
originating in the mid-levels. Sub-cloud layer mean relative
humidity less than 20% will support significant precipitation
evaporation efficiency, limiting widespread appreciable rainfall
amounts. Thus, a few lightning induced wildfire starts will be
possible with any high-based thunderstorm that develops.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$