Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
306 FNUS22 KWNS 121940 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An upper-level low and attendant 70 mid-level jet over the Pacific Northwest will progress into the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday. Dry, southwest wind ahead of a surface cold front augmented by the robust mid-level flow and efficient daytime boundary layer mixing will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the southern Great Basin Sunday. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of 10-15% will promote an elevated fire weather threat for southern NV and west-central UT. Farther north, west/southwest post-frontal winds of around 15 mph (locally 20 mph) are expected across much of northern NV, including the Sierra Front into southern ID and parts of southwestern MT. Although cooler, daytime RH is still expected to fall close to 15% by mid-afternoon within an increasingly dry post-frontal air mass. Fuels across the Great Basin continue to dry with ERCs nearing the 80th percentile in some locations. ..Williams.. 09/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level low and associated 70 kt jet streak moves from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Sunday, dry and gusty conditions at the surface will support Elevated fire-weather conditions over much of the Great Basin into the Snake River Valley and portions of southwestern Montana. ...Great Basin into portions of Idaho and Montana... Beneath the compact upper-level low and associated strong jet streak, deep boundary layer mixing will result in broad, gusty southwest flow of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15%. Elevated fire-weather conditions could persist as the upper low progresses eastward and a relatively dry cold front moves across the region. Fuels guidance has ERCs generally at or below the 70th annual percentiles, tempering overall fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$