Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
915 FNUS22 KWNS 212000 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was added to much of northern WA state and the far northern ID Panhandle. This area will experience greater coverage of dry thunderstorms amid high-based, fast moving, and drier air aloft behind the frontal passage later in the day as the trough continues a slow eastward progression. While more northwestern extents of the Scattered Dry Thunderstorm area are expected to accumulate higher rainfall amounts, it will be amid some of the driest and heaviest fuel loading. An area of Critical Wind/RH was also introduced over central portions of the Columbia River Basin. Ahead of the cold front passage, sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph amid afternoon RHs of 15-25% within this area. Winds will turn west-northwesterly as the front passes through central WA and OR in the late afternoon/early evening time frame. The existing Critical Wind/RH area along with the larger Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area remain on track. ..Stearns.. 08/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough and accompanying south-southwesterly jet max will overspread the Northwest through the period -- along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Rockies. In the low-levels, a cold front will move eastward across parts of WA and OR during the day. ...Northern/Central Intermountain West... Beneath the midlevel jet streak, enhanced deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the northern and central Intermountain West. This will result in a broad area of 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Over parts of northeast CA, northwest NV, and south-central/southeast OR, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and around 15 percent RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions. Locally critical conditions will also be possible within the Cascade gaps, though these conditions appear too localized for an additional Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Robust midlevel height falls/forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will overspread the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies during the day. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a midlevel moisture plume will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms regionally. While 0.7-1 inch PW will support a mix of wet and dry storms, quick storm motions and the deep/dry boundary layer should tend to limit overall rainfall. Therefore, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible atop increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Additionally, the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong to severe outflow winds (especially toward the northern Rockies). For details on the severe risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$