Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
735 FNUS22 KWNS 170704 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)*** A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS, encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH, necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at a life threateningly rapid pace. By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$