Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
081 FNUS22 KWNS 171941 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes for the Day 2 Outlook update. Minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions with receptive fuels are expected across CONUS. A weakening surface low moving into the mid-MS Valley and a departing mid-level jet will promote lighter west-southwest winds of around 10 mph across the Southern Plains where receptive fuels and dry grasses exist. Cloud cover in advance of an upper-level trough over CA should reduce daytime boundary layer mixing, limiting wind speeds to below 15 mph and RH reductions to around 20% across western/northwestern TX. Residual dry conditions will remain across the Southeast Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and a surface low enters the lower OH River Valley. Increasing south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph across the lower MS Valley and OH River Valley should be offset with the drier air mass and fuels in the Southeast, limiting a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 11/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A surface low currently developing along the central High Plains is forecast to gradually weaken through late Tuesday across the Ozarks/mid-MS Valley. A westerly downslope flow regime will likely persist across parts of the southern High Plains ahead of a weak cold front, but increasing displacement from the weakening low will favor weaker winds compared to previous days (generally near/below 15 mph). Nonetheless, dry conditions will persist over an area that should have receptive fine fuels after preceding days of dry/breezy conditions. Localized fire weather concerns are possible where winds can increase to near 15 mph, but limited confidence in the coverage/duration of adequately strong winds precludes risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$