Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
994 FNUS22 KWNS 111946 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the risk areas for Day 2/Wednesday; otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Farther south, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon to overnight hours west of the Sierra Crest (HREF/REFS 5-10% probabilities), and along the southern/central California coastal regions. While ERCs are currently between the 80-90th percentiles, increasing monsoonal moisture should provide some relief to the fuelscape in the coming days. Forecast soundings depict PWATs will approach 1" or greater with LCL-EL winds less than 15 kts, insinuating accumulating rainfall is possible. However, profiles portray a dry sub-cloud layer in the Valleys and adjacent foothills, which may limit precipitation efficiency. Lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out on the periphery of accumulating rainfall where receptive fuels exist. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing encroaches into the Pacific Northwest and northern CA coast on D2/Wednesday as upper ridging begins to shift eastward. The trough and increasing moisture from the Pacific will aid in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm development across higher terrain of northwestern MT, ID Panhandle and northeastern WA Wednesday afternoon. Breezy and dry conditions north of more robust monsoon moisture across the Southwest will promote an elevated fire weather threat for parts of northeastern CA and adjacent OR/NV as well as the Upper Snake River Plain. A surface low across the central Plains will bolster southerly winds across the Southern High Plains, promoting elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and southwestern KS. ...Southern Plains... Hot and dry conditions will persist south of a frontal boundary over northern KS on D2/Wednesday. A parent surface low over western KS will enhance southerly winds across much of the Southern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. The southerly winds of around 15 mph, RH dropping to as low as 10% amid a drought stressed fuelscape will promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern KS. Elevated highlights were adjusted westward based on latest model guidance and expected fuel conditions. ...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle and Northwestern Montana... Thunderstorms are expected across neighboring higher terrain to the north of the Columbia Basin Wednesday afternoon as increasing mid/upper level moisture accompanies a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will likely evolve as PWATs reach into the 0.80-1.00 inch range amid increasingly instability. However, fuels remain quite receptive with ERCs still reaching into the 90-95th percentiles so concerns for new ignitions remain. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were warranted given ongoing fire activity in the Pacific Northwest. ...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... Flow aloft will back to the southwest over the Great Basin as the upper trough pushes into the West Coast and broader ridge slides eastward. A very dry residual boundary layer and developing westerly winds of up to 15 mph during peak afternoon heating will support elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels across northeastern CA, northwestern NV and southern OR. Farther east, similar west/southwest winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 15% will support an enhanced fire weather threat for the Upper Snake River Plain in ID. Introduced Elevated fire weather highlights for both of these areas as deeper monsoon moisture remains to the south at least for Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$