121
FNUS22 KWNS 210551
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern U.S.
as a southward progressing cold front promotes widespread chances of
rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard on Day 2/Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida will continue to
translate northward along the western periphery of a large-scale
ridge across the western CONUS. As high pressure shifts towards the
Four Corners, additional monsoonal moisture will advect into the
Pacific Northwest.

Despite being less than 48 hours from the forecast period, model
data (including high-resolution guidance) exhibits prominent
differences in the amplitude of the upper ridge; thus, disparity in
the strength and direction of upper/mid-level flow. While a mix of
wet/dry thunderstorms are still expected across the IsoDryT area, a
slightly more eastward progression of the Pacific upper low could
result in expasive thunderstorm coverage. Forecast PWAT values do
approach 0.9-1.25", but 20-30 kt storm motions should inhibit
precipitation efficiency, resulting in greater potential for
lightning ignitions. Given very receptive fuels and fire activity in
the area, a subsequent outlook upgrade to a Scattered Dry
Thunderstorm area may be warranted if the wetting rain footprint
remains relatively smaller to thunderstorm coverage.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$