Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
191 FNUS22 KWNS 311953 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern Great Basin... A mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft enters central CA on Tuesday. Despite the delayed onset of stronger 40-50 kt mid-level winds until late afternoon/evening, a surface trough across the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin coupled with modest southwest 15-20 knot boundary layer flow will support southwest surface winds of 10-20 mph across northeastern CA, far northwestern NV and adjacent south-central OR Tuesday afternoon. These winds along with relative humidity between 10-15% will bring an Elevated fire weather to the northern Great Basin where fuels remain dry and receptive. ...Southeastern Idaho into Yellowstone Country... A mid-level short wave moving through Great Basin D1/Monday will shift northeastward into the northern High Plains by the end of D2/Tuesday. This feature will likely aid in some nocturnal, high-based convection across southeastern ID into northwestern WY and adjacent southern MT tonight into early Tuesday morning. Although the meteorological environment is supportive of dry thunderstorms including fast northeastward storm motions and presence of a dry-sub cloud layer, recent rainfall has mitigated fuel receptiveness limiting the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 08/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... An offshore upper low will evolve into an open wave and approach the northern California coast by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday morning, the mid-level jet will pivot into the northern Great Basin. Similar to Monday, a surface trough will develop in the Northwest into much of the western Great Basin. Downslope winds will likely be stronger than on Monday, however. Winds could reach 15-20 mph with localized 20-25 mph possible. The late timing of the mid-level jet will tend to mitigate a greater fire weather threat. RH will again fall to 15-20%. Very dry fuels will continue to support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$