558
FNUS22 KWNS 161932
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

Tomorrow`s (Monday) fire weather outlook remains on-track with only
minor adjustments made with this outlook update based on the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance.

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
tomorrow`s fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 11/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely return to parts of the
southern High Plains Monday afternoon with lingering fire weather
concerns possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern High Plains...
The upper trough currently over southern CA is forecast to
de-amplify as it progresses northeastward into the central Rockies
by Monday evening. Lee troughing will become more pronounced through
Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching wave, resulting in
strengthening winds across much of the Plains. Dry conditions to the
west of the surface trough will likely be exacerbated by increasing
westerly downslope flow, resulting in fairly widespread RH
reductions into the teens to low 20s. Latest ensemble consensus
suggests that 15-20 mph winds are likely across eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle where ERCs range from the 80-90th percentiles.
Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable for at least a few hours Monday afternoon. Similar wind/RH
conditions may emerge across portions of southern CO in the
immediate lee of the Rockies; however, confidence in this potential
is more limited due to spread in wind magnitudes in recent high-res
guidance.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Northwesterly offshore flow is expected to persist through Monday
afternoon across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, though the
departure of the primary surface low to the northeast and building
high pressure will favor weaker winds compared to today/Sunday.
Regardless, dry conditions will persist with another day of 20-35%
RH minimums expected. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may
develop where winds can reach into the low/mid teens.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$