Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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858
FNUS22 KWNS 060544
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
A flattening upper-level ridge will be centered over the southern
Great Basin on Day 2/Friday, with stronger southwesterly to
northwesterly flow riding over the ridge atop the northwestern
CONUS. Numerous large wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies will continue to produce plumes of smoke that will
be transported across the CONUS within the upper pattern. Meanwhile,
the northern fringe of monsoonal moisture will gradually advect into
southern California, Nevada, and Utah, promoting afternoon
thunderstorms amid a dry boundary layer.

...Northern Intermountain West...
Strengthening flow aloft amid a reinforced onshore pressure gradient
and locally enhanced winds will bring elevated fire weather
conditions to much of the Northwest U.S. on Day 2/Friday. A
prolonged dry airmass has contributed to worsening fuel conditions,
with forecast annual ERCs exceeding the 95-98th percentiles. While
the spatial extent of sustained 15+ mph winds are somewhat limited,
diurnal flow and terrain-driven winds amid 10-20% RH and
exceptionally dry fuels will present a favorable environment for new
fire starts and impact active wildfires.

...Southern Nevada and southwestern Utah...
Daytime instability and increasing mid-level moisture may support
thunderstorm development across southern Nevada and Utah.
Precipitation efficiency is expected to be limited with a dry
boundary layer and forecast PWATs of 0.8" or less. Fuels have grown
more receptive under several days of hot and dry conditions,
presenting a greater concern for lightning ignitions. As such,
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been introduced across the
region.

...California...
Daytime high temperatures of 100+ degrees F and 5-15% RH are
forecast across the California valleys and surrounding terrain. The
spatial extent of sustained 15+ mph winds for 3 hours or greater
will be limited, precluding an introduction of fire weather
highlights; however, periods of onshore flow exceeding 15 mph are
possible across localized interior regions and terrain-favored
areas, supportive of locally elevated fire concerns where fuels are
receptive.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$