Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
858 FNUS22 KWNS 060544 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A flattening upper-level ridge will be centered over the southern Great Basin on Day 2/Friday, with stronger southwesterly to northwesterly flow riding over the ridge atop the northwestern CONUS. Numerous large wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will continue to produce plumes of smoke that will be transported across the CONUS within the upper pattern. Meanwhile, the northern fringe of monsoonal moisture will gradually advect into southern California, Nevada, and Utah, promoting afternoon thunderstorms amid a dry boundary layer. ...Northern Intermountain West... Strengthening flow aloft amid a reinforced onshore pressure gradient and locally enhanced winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions to much of the Northwest U.S. on Day 2/Friday. A prolonged dry airmass has contributed to worsening fuel conditions, with forecast annual ERCs exceeding the 95-98th percentiles. While the spatial extent of sustained 15+ mph winds are somewhat limited, diurnal flow and terrain-driven winds amid 10-20% RH and exceptionally dry fuels will present a favorable environment for new fire starts and impact active wildfires. ...Southern Nevada and southwestern Utah... Daytime instability and increasing mid-level moisture may support thunderstorm development across southern Nevada and Utah. Precipitation efficiency is expected to be limited with a dry boundary layer and forecast PWATs of 0.8" or less. Fuels have grown more receptive under several days of hot and dry conditions, presenting a greater concern for lightning ignitions. As such, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been introduced across the region. ...California... Daytime high temperatures of 100+ degrees F and 5-15% RH are forecast across the California valleys and surrounding terrain. The spatial extent of sustained 15+ mph winds for 3 hours or greater will be limited, precluding an introduction of fire weather highlights; however, periods of onshore flow exceeding 15 mph are possible across localized interior regions and terrain-favored areas, supportive of locally elevated fire concerns where fuels are receptive. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$