159
ACUS02 KWNS 050514
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle
Missouri Valley.

...MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley...

The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to
weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops
eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several
shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over
the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow
also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains
with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas,
with a surface trough extending southward through the central High
Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND,
while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across
South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along
these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are
forecast.

Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of
MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain,
it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it
shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon.
Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface
trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface
low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the
approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail
will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm
coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

...Southern States...

A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface
front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very
moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light
and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential.
However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and
sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered
strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$