902
ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central
High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in
parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on
Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and
northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over
Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the
central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the
development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon.
Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the
northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent
should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In
addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for
large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A
wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will
increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe
threat.

Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and
southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected
to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of
the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be
possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along
pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is
evident on forecast soundings.  This could be sufficient for some
cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts
would be possible.

...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee
low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian
foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic
forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation
around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become
steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 06/14/2025

$$