771
ACUS02 KWNS 151738
SWODY2
SPC AC 151736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are
forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out
of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies
aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height
falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the
antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with
around -10 C at 500 mb.

At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the
convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will
exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms,
with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further
across much of NE.

...MN/IA/SD...
An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern
MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east
during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop
along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon.
Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the
southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail.
Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward
across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and
northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong
instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear
appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail
threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern
periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential.

...MT/WY/NE...
Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates
and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT
across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may
develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to
develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into
central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the
MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest
850 mb wind favoring propagation.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2025

$$