450
ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains on Friday.

...Sabine Valley vicinity...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning in the vicinity of a
stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from the ArkLaTex
toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of this activity and associated
outflow, a narrow corridor of heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F
amid 70s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak, but up to 25 kt
effective shear magnitudes could support organized/robust multi-cell
thunderstorm activity along the surface boundary during the
afternoon/early evening. This activity could produce strong to
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse is forecast to track across the central
Rockies into the central Plains on Friday afternoon/evening. This
will support modestly enhanced west/northwest mid/upper flow. While
0-3 km flow will be light, vertically veering wind profiles will
foster 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over higher terrain, and near a surface low over
western NE, during the afternoon. A mix of supercells and
multi-cells will develop east/southeast into modest boundary-layer
moisture where midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE
up to 2000 J/kg. Isolated large hail and sporadic strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2025

$$