463
ACUS02 KWNS 150514
SWODY2
SPC AC 150512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Colorado River
Valley into the Four Corners states on Sunday. Additional isolated
thunderstorms may approach the central California coast early Monday
morning. Severe storms are not expected.

...Western U.S...

An upper low and attendant trough over the western Great Basin and
Southwest states will pivot east/northeast toward the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains on Sunday/Sunday night. Moderate southwesterly
deep-layer flow ahead of this feature will overlap with midlevel
moisture and cooling aloft to provide weak instability. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible from the Lower CO Valley into the
Four Corners states through evening as the upper trough progresses
east/northeast. A cool boundary layer and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg
will preclude severe potential.

Another upper low offshore the Pacific coast will develop southeast
toward the northern/central CA coast last Sunday/early Monday.
Cooling aloft will allow for development of weak instability near
the central CA coast as a weak surface low and Pacific front move
inland near around 08-12z Monday. Low-topped convection may produce
isolated lightning flashes while 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level
flow could foster locally gusty winds. Poor lapse rates and meager
instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 11/15/2025

$$