964
ACUS02 KWNS 230523
SWODY2
SPC AC 230521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas into northern MN...

Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday in response to a shortwave
upper trough moving across Manitoba/western Ontario and the northern
Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will develop south/southeast
across parts of north Dakota and northern MN.

South/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport
modest boundary layer moisture northward across parts of ND/SD and
northern/central MN. This will occur on the eastern periphery of a
strong upper ridge building over the Rockies/High Plains. As a
result of upper ridging, warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer
may result in at least weak capping over portions of the region.
Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).

Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed with
height, will result in supercell wind profiles. Forecast soundings
show a well-mixed boundary layer, with steep 0-3 km lapse rates.
Organized cells are expected to develop by late afternoon near the
surface boundary and spread east/southeast with time through the
evening. A low-level jet is also forecast to increase during the
evening/nighttime hours. The main risk with these storms will be
from large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. If storms can
become surface-based, a tornado or two also could occur. The
strengthening low-level jet could maintain elevated convection into
the nighttime hours across northern MN, but instability weakens an
inhibition increases with south and east extent across the Upper MS
Valley. This should keep severe potential relatively confined within
a narrow corridor across portions of the Dakotas into northern MN.

...SC vicinity...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
within a moderately unstable and very moist airmass. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear as a surface boundary sags
south and east across the region. This may be sufficient for a
couple of organized clusters capable of producing sporadic wind
damage.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

$$