306
ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central
High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in
parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level high will remain in place across the central/northern
Plains into the northern Rockies on D2/Sunday. Westerly flow aloft
will move across the ridge, with a few shortwave impulses rotating
through the flow. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected
from the Northern Rockies southward across the dryline in the
central high Plains. A surface low is expected to deepen across
Wyoming through the period, lifting northward across the Dakotas.

...Central and Northern Plains...
As the surface low across Wyoming deepens, east to southeasterly
flow will continue across the central and northern Plains. Dew
points in the low to mid 60s will be common, allowing for strong to
moderate instability to develop by the afternoon. Upslope flow
across the northern Rockies and forcing for ascent with shortwaves
rounding the ridge will allow for scattered thunderstorm development
across the high terrain spreading into the lower elevations through
the later afternoon/evening. Generally straight hodograph profiles
will support initial supercell modes before clustering and upscale
growth occurs into the late afternoon. Given steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear, large to very large hail (some 2-3"+) will
be possible.

As the surface low deepens into the afternoon, mass response will
occur with an increase in a southerly low-level jet into the western
Dakotas. CAM guidance shows some uncertainty in evolution of storms
as they move eastward out of Montana. There is consistent signal
that an MCS will travel eastward across some portions of the
Dakotas, with potential for strong to significant winds (60-75+
mph). Should a more favorable corridor become established, an
upgrade to higher probabilities may be needed.

...Southern/South-Central Plains into the Missouri Valley...
An MCS will likely be ongoing across portions of Oklahoma into
northern Texas early in the period. Residual outflow in association
with this will set up across portion of north-central Texas into
Missouri. Convective re-development may be somewhat inhibited due to
warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of
this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence
increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries.
Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings.  This
could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat.
Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible.

...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee
low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon across
northern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Sufficient deep
layer and instability will allow for a few instances of severe wind
and hail within stronger cores.

..Thornton.. 06/14/2025

$$