224
ACUS02 KWNS 251728
SWODY2
SPC AC 251726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A persistent moisture plume and associated midlevel trough will be
shunted eastward into the southern/central Plains as upstream
heights rise over the southern Rockies, east of another weak trough
just off the northern CA coast.  A deep occluding cyclone will
remain just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast.  In a warm
advection regime near the southeast New England coast, midlevel
buoyancy/depth could be sufficient for a few lightning flashes with
elevated convection.  A trailing cold front will drift southward
into the FL Straits.  Some air mass modification is expected along
the southeast FL coast, where a confluence zone could support
low-topped, warm process convection.  However, a pronounced midlevel
inversion will likely preclude sufficiently deep convection for
charge separation.

...Southern/central Plains late Saturday afternoon/evening...
Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening within the lingering
moisture plume and along a surface trough from northwest TX into
central KS.  A deep, surface mixed layer in areas with less cloud
debris will favor isolated strong outflow gusts.  The larger-scale
mass response will remain weak, though vertical shear will be
marginally favorable for some storm organization and an associated
threat for isolated large hail.

..Thompson.. 09/25/2026

$$