637
ACUS02 KWNS 160528
SWODY2
SPC AC 160526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Northern/Central Plains...

An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it develop east/southeast
across Ontario and the Upper Midwest, resulting in broader height
falls from the northern/central Plains to Great Lakes. As this
occurs, 40-50 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
region. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest MN
into western NE by 00z. Ahead of the front, a corridor of 60s F
dewpoints are expected across central/eastern NE into IA/southeast
SD and MN. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep
lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will
result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential
upscale growth could occur during the evening across NE as a modest
low-level jet develops. If this occurs, the damaging wind risk could
increase.

...South-central Appalachians...

A vorticity max located over the Lower OH Valley will develop
east/southeast through 30-40 kt west/northwesterly flow aloft Monday
afternoon and evening. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in
place amid strong daytime heating. Large-scale ascent will increase
as the vorticity maxima approaches during the afternoon, and a
surface boundary begins to sag south/southeast over the region.
Steep low-level lapse rates, high PW values, and 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes could result in organized clusters producing
damaging gusts through evening.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

$$