151
ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos on Monday
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible on
Monday night along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will drop south along the OR coast towards the Bay
Area through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies will envelop much of southern CA to the eastern
Great Basin and CO Plateau by late afternoon. This strengthening
deep-layer flow regime will conditionally support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. Despite a seasonably moist air mass
across the Southwest, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE.
Morning clouds/rain will also curtail diabatic surface heating. But
scattered to widespread thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon from eastern AZ to the Four Corners vicinity. Isolated and
marginal severe hail/wind appear possible. Convection farther
southeast into the TX Trans-Pecos should increase into early
evening, where a strong to marginal severe storm is possible.

...South-central coastal CA...
An intense mid-level jetlet will impinge on the southern CA coast
Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low.
Some morning CAM guidance indicates potential for a low-topped
convective band in the left-exit region of this jetlet. While
mid-level lapse rates may remain insufficient for charge separation,
strong lower-level winds coinciding with the band could be
convectively mixed to the surface and foster locally damaging winds.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$