307
ACUS02 KWNS 180548
SWODY2
SPC AC 180546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong
to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern MO...Northern AR...Western KY/TN...Southern IL...
Gradual height falls will occur throughout the period as a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moves out of the Plains and toward
Mid MS/OH Valleys. Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from MO
into the Lower OH Valley, but perhaps not particularly strong.
Behind this initial activity, strong instability will redevelop from
MO into northern AR, and western KY/TN with southwest low-level
winds and 70s F dewpoints near a southward moving front over
southern MO. Predictability is a bit low for the boundary position,
but storms may form anywhere from I-70 southward into northern AR
during the late afternoon, moving east/southeast during the evening.
Corridors of damaging wind and hail will be possible, with any brief
tornado chances depending on earlier outflows which may enhance
low-level shear.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Mid
MS Valley on Wednesday, with 40 kt northwest flow at 500 mb across
much of the central Plains. Although a front will push south across
OK and the TX Panhandle, low-level moisture with 50s to 60s F
dewpoints will remain beneath this upper trough, and strong heating
will lead to clusters of storms within a weak surface trough/wind
shift by late afternoon. Favored areas will be from SD into NE where
temperatures aloft will be cold and counteract the lack of low-level
moisture, and from the Front Range southward into northeast NM.
Scattered hail over 1.00" or locally severe gusts will be possible
through early evening as storms travel southeastward out of the High
Plains and across SD, NE and KS.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

$$