391
ACUS02 KWNS 271705
SWODY2
SPC AC 271704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are
possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex...

A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected
to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS
on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern
KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast
along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern
OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located
over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop
southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River.
Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge
across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River
vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints
in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating
into the 90s.

Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich
boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near
2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may
occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically
veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While
large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the
shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a
deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This
could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further
west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday
afternoon into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2025

$$