745
ACUS02 KWNS 281717
SWODY2
SPC AC 281715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday from southeast
New Mexico into west Texas.

...Southeast NM/west TX Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday...
A midlevel low will move eastward over AZ/NM while the remnants of
Hurricane Polo eject northeastward toward far west TX and southeast
NM.  An influx of midlevel moisture with the tropical system from
the Pacific and low-level moisture from TX into NM will support
increasing convection Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours
across NM and west TX.  Lapse rates aloft will remain poor with the
approach of the remnant tropical/warm core low, but moist profiles
and substantial vertical shear with curved hodographs suggest the
potential for at least isolated wind damage and possibly a couple of
tornadoes with embedded supercells.  The severe threat is expected
to begin Tuesday afternoon across far west TX and southern NM and
continue into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning across the southern
High Plains.

..Thompson.. 09/28/2026

$$