497
ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona
into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday
night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of
tornadoes possible.

...Southern Rockies to southern High Plains...
A midlevel trough just off the northern CA coast will progress
inland to the Four Corners by early Monday.  This will be preceded
by the rapid northeastward ejection of a subtropical speed max now
near 27 N and 128 W.  A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate
in the lee of the CO Rockies by Sunday night with increasing
low-level mass response and northward advection of low-level
moisture from TX to KS.

The lead speed max will cross southern AZ Sunday afternoon and NM
Sunday night.  Cloud cover and precipitation the past few days, plus
an expansive swath of midlevel moisture in advance of the
subtropical wave, will tend to limit lapse rates across the elevated
mixed layer source region.  However, unusually moist profiles will
also contribute to at least weak buoyancy into the higher terrain
from southern AZ into NM, and the buoyancy is unlikely to be tied
very strongly to the diurnal heating cycle.  As such, there will be
the potential for bands of convection to accompany the ejecting
speed max Sunday into Sunday night, both across AZ and especially
NM.  Wind profiles will be quite strong with long hodographs and
weakly buoyant, moist profiles, similar to cool season severe events
in the Southeast.  Will expand the MRGL risk for embedded supercells
and/or bowing segments capable of producing occasional severe
outflow gusts and a couple of tornadoes, and a SLGT risk upgrade is
a possibility in later updates across NM.

..Thompson.. 10/31/2026

$$