785
ACUS02 KWNS 190619
SWODY2
SPC AC 190617

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on
Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this
time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.

...Southern Plains...

An upper trough oriented from the Great Basin into northwest Mexico
will pivot east/northeast into the southern Plains on Thursday. As
the shortwave trough ejects across the Plains, deamplification of
this system is forecast. Nevertheless, moderate deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX into the Ozark Plateau,
with forecast guidance indicating 30-50 kt 850-700 mb flow,
increasing to 60-70 kt at 500 mb.

Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overlap a moist boundary layer
from central into eastern TX/OK and eastward into the Ozarks and
Lower MS Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing across the southern Plains early Thursday in a
persistent warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting trough. By
evening, a Pacific front is forecast to move across western TX,
becoming oriented from western OK into central TX by 12z Friday.

Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be remarkable given the
deamplifying upper trough, and deep-layer flow will remain veered.
This is likely to support training convection through the day and
into the evening, casting doubt on how much destabilization can
occur due to muted heating and limited lapse rates. Furthermore,
forecast soundings continue to indicate warm midlevels, further
influencing a sub-par thermodynamic environment. The best overlap of
warmer boundary layer temperatures, deep Gulf moisture, and stronger
vertical shear may exist during the late afternoon and evening
across parts of central TX, but this remains highly uncertain. A
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk may become necessary in subsequent
outlooks, but large uncertainty precludes probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

$$