482
ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile,
a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early
Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the
Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling
over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be
in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.

Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning
across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity
could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day
thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for
afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold
front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe
potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper
Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the
evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern
NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with
southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line
segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts
will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes
more linear.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$