937
ACUS02 KWNS 080633
SWODY2
SPC AC 080632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon
into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central
Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated with an expansive
trough east of the Rockies and a ridge over the West. Associated
with one of the several shortwave impulses embedded within the broad
trough, primary surface cyclone should track from the Upper OH
Valley towards the Northeast/southern New England coast. A cold
front will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and off the
Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Monday.

...Central FL to Southeast VA...
As has been the case for the past few days, some models have
struggled with run-to-run consistency in the degree of convective
coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Latest trends have
settled back into indicating a drier/more mixed boundary layer ahead
of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be
confined from central FL to southeast GA where MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg should be common by Sunday afternoon. While low-level shear
will be weak, strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies should
support a threat for isolated severe wind/hail.

Farther north, decreasing surface-based instability should be
compensated by stronger deep-layer shear. This will support a more
conditional risk for severe, with mainly marginal intensities. Storm
coverage may be quite limited through sunset before isolated
convection develops during the evening as increasing mid-level
height falls occur just prior to the front shifting offshore.

..Grams.. 11/08/2025

$$