805
ACUS02 KWNS 161647
SWODY2
SPC AC 161646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the central/northern Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Additional storms are possible
across the Southwest and central California. A few strong storms are
possible in the Midwest, but severe-thunderstorm potential appears
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will cross the Plains and move into the
Ozarks and Midwest on Monday while a mid-level trough amplifies
across southern California. A strong trough will persist across the
Northeast. A surface low will move from the central High Plains to
the Ozarks on Monday with increasing low-level moisture to its
southeast.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
As the mid-level trough advances eastward on Monday, the low-level
jet will strengthen across the eastern Plains and into the Ozarks.
This will result in increasing elevated instability through the day.
The strongest isentropic ascent appears to be mostly north of the
greatest instability. This casts some doubt on storm coverage where
the most favorable environment is present. Therefore, a few strong
storms capable of small hail are likely, but confidence in large
hail is not high enough for severe weather probabilities at this
time.

Farther west, thunderstorms are expected beneath the cold
upper-level low but instability should remain too limited for a
severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 11/16/2025

$$