306
ACUS02 KWNS 051746
SWODY2
SPC AC 051745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from
Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from
Texas into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN
Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of
the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as
the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the
Appalachians late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into
northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it.
Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s
F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX
into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into
western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels.

The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist
air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms
beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and
overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear
likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS.

...Eastern TX across much of the Southeast...
Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA,
possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat
cannot be ruled out at that time.

The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after
21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells
may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer
combined with strong mid and high level flow should support
supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe
risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly
low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of
damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front
late as storms become more numerous.

Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging
gusts are also likely near the front.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026

$$