Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
514 ACUS02 KWNS 061736 SWODY2 SPC AC 061734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Northern Plains... A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains, ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern WY late in the day. Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface trough from western ND to the Black Hills. Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail may occur as well. With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface behind the activity. ...Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO... A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible. ...Southeast VA into far northeast NC... A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/06/2026 $$