560
ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio
Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max
strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of
this system,  upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough
moves out of the Maritimes.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL
by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO,
western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high
pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface
ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such,
low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into
TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the
cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid
elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger
surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.

...Eastern TX into western LA...
Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain
cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are
likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over
northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse
rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000
J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt,
marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also
accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.

Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold
front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields
will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push
south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or
locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the
surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may
develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe
probabilities.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$