590
ACUS02 KWNS 241725
SWODY2
SPC AC 241723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday
afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west
Texas.

...Eastern NM to far west TX...
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel
shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and
begin to weaken slowly.  Height falls with the ejecting trough will
brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel
moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented
baroclinic zone.  Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction
with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain
circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.

Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel
wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within
the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the
past few days.  Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be
enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with
clouds.  Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some
supercell potential.  Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter)
will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph
curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the
OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core
approaches.  A few thunderstorms will also be possible across
southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.

..Thompson.. 10/24/2026

$$